Economic update November 2025
Global Trade tensions re-escalated in October, with the US responding to increased rare earth export controls from China with an additional 100% tariff alongside export controls on critical software. This led to the S&P500 experiencing its largest one day decline since Liberation Day in April, falling by -2.71% on October 10. Gold prices accelerated to fresh record highs amid global trade tensions, the continued US government shutdown and expectations of further Fed cuts. The yellow metal then pared gains in the second half of the month as trade tensions eased and investors took profit, with the spot gold price ending the month +3.7% higher at US$4,002.92/oz. By the end of the month, US President Donald Trump and China’s President, Xi Jinping met to discuss a potential deal, during which Trump reduced the fentanyl tariff on China by 10%, while China agreed to pause export controls on rare earths. Global equity indices continued to create fresh highs throughout the month amid robust corporate earnings and continued monetary policy easing from global central banks. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index advanced +1.9%, with a strong contribution from US equities. The S&P500 added +2.3%, the Dow Jones gained +2.5% and the tech heavy NASDAQ rallied +4.7%. European equities also fared well, with the Stoxx600 gaining +2.5% on the month and the FTSE100 adding +1.9%. The global services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 52.8 in September, from 53.4. The global manufacturing PMI ticked lower to 50.8, from 50.9. US The US federal government entered a shutdown on 1 October, resulting in delayed economic data prints and missed pay checks for furloughed employees. Treasury yields rallied on the risk off sentiment and as markets fully priced in a 25 basis points (bp) cut at the October Fed meeting. Nvidia became the first stock to reach a US$5tn market cap, amid a broader AI rally. Major US stock indices continued to reset record highs amid corporate quarterly earnings and increased AI related spending. NASDAQ +4.7%, DOW +2.5%, S&P500 +2.3%. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell indicated in a speech mid month that the Fed was on track to deliver a 25bp rate cut at its end of October meeting, despite the lack of economic data, as the economic outlook appeared unchanged since the Fed last met. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised to the downside in September, rising +0.23% month on month (MoM) vs consensus +0.3% MoM. At the end of the month the Fed delivered the widely expected 25bp rate cut, however Fed Chair Powell advised that a further rate cut in December was not a “foregone conclusion”. The market was fully priced in a 25bp cut in December, with Powell’s commentary sparking a repricing in the market. By the end of October, this had fallen to 67% priced in. The US Dollar Index (DXY) appreciated +2.1% during October amid the more cautious outlook towards future rate cuts from the Fed. Australia The ASX200 traded +0.4% higher in October, reaching a fresh high at 9,108.6. Annual General Meetings (AGMs) and a mixed bag of trading updates captured investor attention. The monthly household spending indicator slowed to +0.1% in August, below consensus expectations of +0.3%. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5%, from 4.3% in September, the highest level of unemployment since November 2021. This saw money markets begin to price in the likelihood of a rate cut in November. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Bullock provided hawkish commentary at an industry dinner, during which she advised that the labour market remained tight, with upside risks to the RBA’s expectations for Q3 trimmed mean CPI. The chance of a November cut was largely priced out again. Q3 CPI came in higher than expected, up +1.3% during the quarter, boosting the annual CPI increase from +2.1% to +3.1%. This caused markets to almost entirely price out the chance of a further rate cut in 2025. Interest rate sensitive stocks, including Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) and tech companies, sold off as the likelihood of further rate cuts diminished. The Aussie Dollar experienced a U-shaped month against the USD, ending October -1.0% lower. The AUD sold off on the unemployment print and then appreciated as the market began to price out the likelihood of imminent future rate cuts. New Zealand The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a unanimous 50bp rate cut in its October meeting to 2.5%. The market had priced a ~50% chance of a 50bp rate cut at this meeting. A further 25bp rate cut in November is almost fully priced in. Q3 CPI increased by +1.0%, slightly higher than market expectations for +0.9% and bringing yearly CPI to +3.0%, from +2.7%. Europe The FTSE100 and STOXX600 both reset their record highs during the month, advancing +3.9% and +2.5% respectively, tracking gains from its US peers. Eurozone inflation ticked higher in September in line with consensus, up to +2.2% year on year (YoY) from +2.0% YoY previously. European Union countries turned in their 2026 general government budgets to the EU Commission during October. Germany’s budget showed front loaded fiscal expenditure growth, with its general government deficit widening to 4.75% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 and 4.25% in 2027. Conversely, Italy’s budget saw a continuation of moderate fiscal conservatism. S&P downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating in an unscheduled decision, to A+ from AA-. The ratings agency highlighted risks to the French government (present or future) being able to see through fiscal consolidation. The European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 2% as widely expected, reiterating that the policy rate was in a “good place”. The Euro depreciated -1.7% against the USD during October, partially due to ongoing political uncertainty in France. The Euro closed the month at 1.1534 USD, its lowest point during the month. China Policymakers at the Fourth Plenum remained committed to the 2025 Objectives, which included modern industrial system and tech self sufficiency. Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, slightly above market expectations for … Read more