Economic and market overview November 2024
Investors maintained a healthy risk appetite for much of October, which enabled major share markets to make further progress. Movements in the US set the tone, with the S&P 500 Index rising to fresh all-time highs during the month. Towards month end, however, subdued results from some of the largest technology firms in the US saw markets reverse direction and close the month slightly lower. Returns from bond markets were also negative. Despite a 0.50% cut to the Federal Funds rate in September, investors remain concerned that inflation could creep higher – especially if Trump pursues expansionary fiscal policies after becoming President. Treasury yields rose sharply – dragging bond valuations lower – as some of the interest rate cuts anticipated in the US for 2025 were removed from consensus forecasts. US Initial estimates suggested the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3. This was marginally below expectations and was a slowdown from Q2, but nonetheless highlighted the resilience of the economy. Growth was supported by strong consumer spending, with encouraging demand for both goods and services. It seems discretionary expenditure was underpinned by a buoyant labour market and the associated impact on consumer confidence. Payrolls data showed that more than 250,000 jobs were created in September, which was more than 100,000 ahead of forecasts. Employment growth in October – released at the beginning of November – was much less strong. The labour market will therefore remain very closely monitored in the months ahead, as investors try and work out the likely interest rate path. For now, inflationary trends seem quite persistent. The Core PCE measure showed consumer prices still rising at an annual rate of 2.7% in September, which makes it less certain that policymakers will lower interest rates aggressively in the near term. Rate cuts are still anticipated both this year and next, but consensus forecasts now indicate official borrowing costs will settle around 3.5% by the end of 2025, rather than 3.0% that was anticipated at the beginning of October. Australia No formal Reserve Bank of Australia meetings were scheduled in October and so official interest rates were unchanged at 4.35% during the month. Policymakers will meet once more before the end of this year and continue to monitor incoming economic data to gauge whether changes in monetary policy settings are warranted. The ‘trimmed mean’ measure of inflation showed consumer prices rising at an annual rate of 3.5% in Q3. This was down slightly from the prior quarter, but was still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2% to 3% target range. With inflation still running above target and given ongoing strength in the labour market, few observers are expecting interest rates to be lowered any time soon. Australian unemployment remained at 4.1% in September and more than 60,000 jobs were created over the month. New job adverts also increased, suggesting the unemployment rate could remain low for the foreseeable future, in turn exerting upward pressure on wages. Against this background, policymakers might even consider raising borrowing costs further, rather than lowering them as many homeowners and businesses are hoping. New Zealand Interest rates were lowered by 0.50% at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October meeting, following an initial 0.25% cut in August. The annual inflation rate fell to 2.2% in Q3, down from 3.3% in Q2 and 4.0% in Q1, highlighting the extent of the moderation in pricing pressures. There appears to be excess capacity in the New Zealand economy following a recent slowdown, increasing the case for lower borrowing costs. Europe At 0.9% year-on-year, GDP growth in the Eurozone came in higher than expected in Q3. Acceleration from Q2 was supported by another strong contribution from Spain. Growth in Germany and France, the two largest economies, was also above expectations. The Olympic Games provided a boost in France, while there was an encouraging improvement in activity levels in Germany. Recent commentary from European Central Bank officials suggests policymakers are increasingly confident they are winning the fight against inflation. In turn, interest rates were lowered by 0.25% during the month; the third cut in the past five months. It seems almost certain that borrowing costs in the Eurozone will be lowered further in the months ahead. The release of the new Labour government’s first Budget was the main focus in the UK. As anticipated, the Chancellor outlined plans to raise an additional GBP40 billion through taxation in order to improve the country’s budget deficit. Asia Interest rates were lowered in China, as officials in Beijing tried to boost borrowing and investment. The one-year loan prime rate – used as a reference for consumer and business lending – was cut by a further 0.25%, following an earlier 0.10% cut in July. Separately, there was an unexpected improvement in Chinese manufacturing data following five months of deterioration. This raised hopes that recent stimulus measures may be feeding through to the real economy. The increase in factory output also supported a steady improvement in business confidence, which augurs well for investment. In Japan, the latest commentary from central bank policymakers suggested the Bank of Japan will continue to rise interest rates if the inflation target is met. Officials are expecting 2.5% inflation for the 2024 year and annual GDP growth of 0.6%. Australian dollar The revised outlook for US interest rates meant the US dollar fared very well. The greenback enjoyed its strongest month of performance in two years and appreciated against almost all major currencies worldwide, including the Australian dollar. The AUD depreciated by around 5% against the US dollar over the month. This move lifted returns from overseas assets for local investors. While returns from global shares were negative in local currency terms, e.g. they added value in AUD terms owing to currency market movements. Australian equities Australian shares lost ground in October, following five consecutive months of gains. Volatility in commodity prices, owing to ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and mixed economic data from China dampened sentiment. Company news … Read more